ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
Tusk
Shanks · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 19 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
PlayTime
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 4 games
Tusk
DJ · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 3 games
Dawnbreaker
JG · 2 games
Muerta
DJ · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
532 picks · 774 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 346 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 637 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 553 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 671 bans
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 569 bans
Mars
341 picks · 463 bans
Hoodwink
326 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 75%
Hero pool strength62% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:34
Execration 64%PlayTime 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 51:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonPalos
LunaGabbi
Ember SpiritBob
PuckArmel
TimbersawTino-
MarsJG
Ancient Apparitioncml
WeaverDJ
Shadow ShamanShanks
Treant ProtectorKuku
Game 2prediction correct29:29
Execration 60%PlayTime 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainBob
Nature's ProphetGabbi
Dragon KnightPalos
Storm SpiritArmel
MarsTino-
DawnbreakerJG
JakiroShanks
Treant ProtectorKuku
Crystal Maidencml
TuskDJ
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 76%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2