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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 23 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 19 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
cml · 15 games
47%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 7 games
43%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
JG · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
DJ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 895 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 396 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 602 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 848 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 595 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 577 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 494 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Execration 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPalos
51% · 166 games57% · 53 games
KezAkashi
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBob
49% · 354 games50% · 203 games
KunkkaGabbi
Kunkka
Mars
MarsTino-
50% · 325 games48% · 299 games
WindrangerArmel
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanShanks
52% · 248 games47% · 342 games
SnapfireKuku
Snapfire
Ringmaster
Ringmastercml
52% · 377 games48% · 573 games
TuskDJ
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed10:31
Execration 66%PlayTime 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by PlayTime in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPalos
55% · 108 games39% · 47 games
LunaAkashi
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracBob
47% · 105 games50% · 181 game
BeastmasterGabbi
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTino-
53% · 58 games56% · 44 games
ViperArmel
Viper
Marci
MarciShanks
48% · 102 games43% · 143 games
Shadow DemonDJ
Shadow Demon
Bane
Banecml
59% · 87 games53% · 45 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed20:42
Execration 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by PlayTime in 42:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaPalos
48% · 162 games52% · 266 games
GyrocopterAkashi
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracBob
52% · 176 games54% · 206 games
TimbersawGabbi
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsTino-
42% · 266 games47% · 162 games
Void SpiritArmel
Void Spirit
Largo
Largocml
65% · 9 games47% · 71 game
RubickDJ
Rubick
Tiny
TinyShanks
50% · 340 games55% · 248 games
DisruptorKuku
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 78%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3