?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Purple Paradoxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Mirana
Mirana
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%

Purple Paradox

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
seimei · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
seimei · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
378 picks · 604 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
317 picks · 561 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 205 bans
49%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
246 picks · 480 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 346 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
221 picks · 725 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
210 picks · 256 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
209 picks · 119 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Purple Paradox
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:25
Execration 53%Purple Paradox 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBob
33% · 5 games43% · 31 game
Venomancerseimei
Venomancer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
63% · 15 games
Marci
MarciPalos
60% · 11 games
Lion
LionShanks
little data
Game 2prediction correct43:25
Execration 53%Purple Paradox 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
56% · 41 game50% · 310 games
Marsseimei
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierBob
52% · 129 games
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
47% · 122 games
Magnus
MagnusTino-
45% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2