OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Ragdollloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
375 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 122 bans
Lina
269 picks · 481 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 527 bans
Luna
254 picks · 346 bans
Mars
248 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 311 bans
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:42
Execration 56%Ragdoll 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 40:38.
Game 2prediction correct54:30
Execration 56%Ragdoll 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 42:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2