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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Palos · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%

T1

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 971 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 527 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 714 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 559 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 332 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
305 picks · 165 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
300 picks · 221 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 280 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Execration 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by T1 in 31:40.
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Execration 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:55.
Game 3prediction missed19:35
Execration 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by T1 in 50:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 59%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3