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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 14 games
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Palos · 9 games
56%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Palos · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
23savage · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 337 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 327 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
222 picks · 228 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 528 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 420 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
191 picks · 150 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
191 picks · 107 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Execration 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaPalos
52% · 118 games52% · 48 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomTino-
47% · 116 games51% · 106 games
Nature's ProphetJabz
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyBob
49% · 422 games52% · 294 games
TuskMikoto
Tusk
Marci
MarciShanks
53% · 215 games47% · 255 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
48% · 168 games
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:16
Execration 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
55% · 67 games40% · 33 games
Phantom Lancer23savage
Phantom Lancer
Visage
VisageTino-
50% · 161 game49% · 116 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBob
52% · 176 games50% · 109 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Riki
RikiShanks
42% · 21 game53% · 100 games
DawnbreakerQ
Dawnbreaker
49% · 67 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2