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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
cml · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
0%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 679 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
400 picks · 183 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 424 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 529 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 167 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
337 picks · 552 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 636 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 802 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total77% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Execration 33%Talon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
42% · 100 games52% · 15 games
Shadow FiendMikoto
Shadow Fiend
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAbat
43% · 143 games52% · 121 game
RazorAkashi
Razor
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
50% · 76 games55% · 78 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
53% · 165 games58% · 153 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
47% · 117 games
PhoenixPonyo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct9:32
Execration 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbat
40% · 115 games56% · 216 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierTino-
41% · 145 games62% · 26 games
Shadow FiendMikoto
Shadow Fiend
Techies
TechiesShanks
45% · 112 games63% · 73 games
MarciAkashi
Marci
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
41% · 105 games53% · 97 games
Spirit BreakerJhocam
Spirit Breaker
60% · 65 games
IoPonyo
Io
Game 3prediction correct7:30
Execration 35%Talon Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAbat
50% · 139 games51% · 46 games
Chaos KnightAkashi
Chaos Knight
Lycan
LycanTino-
61% · 41 game47% · 103 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
49% · 157 games53% · 104 games
MarsWs
Mars
Pudge
PudgeShanks
52% · 48 games53% · 15 games
Witch DoctorPonyo
Witch Doctor
38% · 117 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 77%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3