The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
Marcisignature
Shanks · 21 game
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 16 games
Rubick
Shanks · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Tiny
Shanks · 14 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Doomsignature
zai · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
683 picks · 468 bans
Techies
626 picks · 655 bans
Doom
573 picks · 1117 bans
Disruptor
514 picks · 484 bans
Beastmaster
510 picks · 1245 bans
Ember Spirit
492 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
466 picks · 696 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Execration 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoTino-
LunamiCKe
MorphlingPalos
Visagezai
Ember SpiritBob
Dragon KnightNisha
MiranaShanks
EnchantressiNSaNiA
50% · 134 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Game 2prediction correct19:35
Execration 30%Team Liquid 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
SlarkmiCKe
BatriderBob
Dark Seerzai
BroodmotherTino-
Storm SpiritNisha
DisruptorShanks
Monkey KingBoxi
54% · 114 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2