The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 10 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 8 games
Team Nemesis
Kunkkaoften banned
Raven · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Akashi · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 2 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
561 picks · 624 bans
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
Jakiro
458 picks · 430 bans
Terrorblade
392 picks · 830 bans
Storm Spirit
365 picks · 556 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 323 bans
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 823 bans
Shadow Shaman
357 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Execration 56%Team Nemesis 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePalos
RazorAkashi
LycanTino-
PuckMac
Shadow ShamanShanks
DoomRaven
Oraclecml
BatriderJing
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Execration 57%Team Nemesis 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPalos
TerrorbladeAkashi
BeastmasterTino-
PangolierMac
BatriderShanks
AbaddonRaven
Jakirocml
SnapfireJing
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2