DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 3:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Nemesisloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
Tusk
Shanks · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
Axe
Tino- · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 12 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 12 games
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 10 games
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
567 picks · 732 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 361 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 659 bans
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 551 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 133 bans
Hoodwink
385 picks · 183 bans
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 536 bans
Shadow Demon
374 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Execration 57%Team Nemesis 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzPalos
Troll Warlord23savage
Queen of PainBob
Storm SpiritMac
Dragon KnightTino-
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
MuertaShanks
Shadow DemonJhocam
Jakirocml
TuskJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct23:37
Execration 53%Team Nemesis 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 56:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
Clinkz23savage
DoomTino-
Earth SpiritMac
Void SpiritBob
Night StalkerRaven
Skywrath MageShanks
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Enchantresscml
Shadow DemonJhocam
Game 3prediction correct24:2
Execration 56%Team Nemesis 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
Drow Ranger23savage
UndyingTino-
LeshracMac
Dragon KnightBob
DoomRaven
Shadow DemonShanks
Keeper of the LightJhocam
Disruptorcml
TuskJaunuel
Game 4prediction correct24:11
Execration 58%Team Nemesis 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordPalos
Spectre23savage
Dragon KnightBob
BeastmasterRaven
MarsTino-
TinyMac
Spirit BreakerShanks
TinkerJaunuel
Ancient Apparitioncml
Skywrath MageJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 64%
Series resultExecration 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4