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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 24 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 14 games
36%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Poloson · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 12 games
42%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Moon · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
460 picks · 491 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
453 picks · 220 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 653 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 602 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 699 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 764 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 632 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total50% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
Execration 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTino-
51% · 212 games47% · 94 games
MedusaMidOne
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPalos
55% · 120 games46% · 77 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
51% · 69 games49% · 63 games
VenomancerJaunuel
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
60% · 53 games43% · 220 games
ClockwerkAhFu
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed56:26
Execration 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Execration in 1:05:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
47% · 83 games51% · 67 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Venomancer
VenomancerTino-
58% · 60 games47% · 97 games
Templar AssassinMidOne
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
50% · 94 games54% · 177 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Doom
DoomShanks
49% · 276 games46% · 172 games
ClockwerkAhFu
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed27:37
Execration 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPalos
55% · 56 games43% · 165 games
TerrorbladeMidOne
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
59% · 46 games44% · 54 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Doom
DoomShanks
52% · 122 games52% · 28 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTino-
54% · 37 games46% · 14 games
GrimstrokeJaunuel
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 50%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3