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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The MongolZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Visage
Visageoften banned
cml · 7 games
43%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 6 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 4 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
JG · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 493 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 297 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 383 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 549 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 384 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 723 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
291 picks · 403 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Execration 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAbat
48% · 248 games52% · 134 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Lycan
LycanTino-
56% · 23 games51% · 181 game
Primal BeastJG
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
40% · 314 games52% · 321 game
TinyHishge
Tiny
Lich
Lichcml
53% · 51 game
Game 2prediction missed17:40
Execration 57%The MongolZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbat
47% · 172 games51% · 116 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Undying
UndyingTino-
52% · 23 games49% · 252 games
PhoenixJG
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickShanks
48% · 192 games55% · 184 games
MagnusHishge
Magnus
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
49% · 165 games
Game 3prediction missed15:36
Execration 53%The MongolZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
40% · 169 games57% · 160 games
MagnusJG
Magnus
Razor
RazorTino-
49% · 95 games56% · 86 games
Earth SpiritWonder'boy
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderShanks
45% · 201 game54% · 252 games
ClockwerkHishge
Clockwerk
Bane
Banecml
44% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 65%
Series resultThe MongolZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3