Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 3:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:2
The MongolZloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 6 games
The MongolZ
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 9 games
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Hishge · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 7 games
Magnussignature
JG · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
496 picks · 651 bans
Muerta
473 picks · 405 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 587 bans
Clockwerk
456 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 514 bans
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 793 bans
Magnus
415 picks · 933 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% The MongolZ
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
Execration 51%The MongolZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonTino-
BeastmasterJG
MarciAkashi
EarthshakerBob
Dark WillowShanks
ClockwerkDJ
Iocml
Game 2prediction correct34:30
Execration 57%The MongolZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAkashi
BeastmasterJG
TerrorbladeTino-
PangolierBob
Miranacml
BatriderDJ
Nyx AssassinShanks
Game 3prediction correct33:31
Execration 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTino-
BeastmasterJG
TinyAkashi
Earth SpiritBob
Miranacml
Spirit BreakerDJ
Nyx AssassinShanks
Game 4prediction missed20:33
Execration 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAkashi
TinyBob
GyrocopterTino-
Centaur WarrunnerJG
ClockwerkShanks
Nyx AssassinDJ
Miranacml
Game 5prediction correct33:33
Execration 55%The MongolZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:03:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerAkashi
EarthshakerBob
Night StalkerTino-
PhoenixJG
ClockwerkShanks
Bounty HunterDJ
Warlockcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 62%
Series resultExecration 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5