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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
14%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
cml · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
20%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 21 game
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 634 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 402 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 483 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
367 picks · 155 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 591 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
325 picks · 706 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 471 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 156 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 74%
Hero pool strength63% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
Execration 35%TNC Predator 65%
The model gave 65% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAbat
51% · 172 games54% · 153 games
LifestealerPalos
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTino-
42% · 172 games55% · 100 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixShanks
46% · 198 games53% · 194 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
47% · 68 games53% · 163 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Execration 34%TNC Predator 66%
The model gave 66% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAbat
49% · 323 games55% · 125 games
WeaverPalos
Weaver
Lycan
LycanTino-
61% · 50 games51% · 124 games
Storm SpiritYowe
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
47% · 215 games45% · 227 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Warlock
Warlockcml
44% · 35 games53% · 147 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 73%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2