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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 3:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 3:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
13%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 6 games
50%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 28 games
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 605 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 388 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
362 picks · 140 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 463 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 345 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 577 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 626 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:20
Execration 40%TNC Predator 60%
The model gave 60% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Execration in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAbat
55% · 125 games55% · 91 game
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Marci
MarciTino-
51% · 56 games57% · 30 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
44% · 126 games52% · 25 games
PudgeJing
Pudge
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
42% · 18 games42% · 179 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct15:23
Execration 41%TNC Predator 59%
The model gave 59% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAbat
51% · 183 games51% · 222 games
TinyPalos
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
53% · 331 game53% · 99 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaShanks
46% · 105 games49% · 219 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titancml
51% · 113 games46% · 192 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed33:20
Execration 41%TNC Predator 59%
The model gave 59% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Execration in 57:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAbat
55% · 77 games53% · 89 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Marci
MarciTino-
60% · 69 games46% · 93 games
Dragon KnightYowe
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressShanks
49% · 170 games43% · 120 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
44% · 27 games46% · 41 game
Spirit BreakerJing
Spirit Breaker
Game 4prediction missed21:5
Execration 39%TNC Predator 61%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by Execration in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAbat
48% · 103 games46% · 142 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Marci
MarciTino-
57% · 28 games51% · 49 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickShanks
47% · 302 games50% · 105 games
WeaverJing
Weaver
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
49% · 31 game56% · 168 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 68%
Series resultExecration 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4