?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Trailer Park Boysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
43%
Axe
Axe
Tino- · 13 games
38%

Trailer Park Boys

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
eleven · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 2 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
eleven · 2 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
559 picks · 676 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 336 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 660 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
426 picks · 148 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 195 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 518 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 507 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Trailer Park Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Execration 63%Trailer Park Boys 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Trailer Park Boys in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarPalos
46% · 92 games48% · 218 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
58% · 333 games50% · 66 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Axe
AxeTino-
43% · 202 games50% · 81 game
Bounty HunterSancity
Bounty Hunter
Muerta
MuertaShanks
52% · 249 games50% · 314 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorcml
76% · 13 games47% · 210 games
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Execration 63%Trailer Park Boys 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPalos
58% · 86 games50% · 228 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Huskar
HuskarBob
47% · 84 games60% · 96 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Axe
AxeTino-
44% · 226 games55% · 255 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskShanks
45% · 513 games57% · 174 games
Shadow ShamanNARMAN
Shadow Shaman
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magecml
40% · 90 games50% · 246 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct29:10
Execration 65%Trailer Park Boys 35%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPalos
56% · 422 games48% · 261 game
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Axe
AxeTino-
48% · 241 game44% · 99 games
Bounty HunterSancity
Bounty Hunter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
57% · 407 games46% · 252 games
Beastmastereleven
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerShanks
48% · 81 game54% · 271 game
WarlockSe
Warlock
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magecml
48% · 105 games49% · 373 games
TuskNARMAN
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 76%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3