Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
WWhoops!loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 7 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 6 games
Clockwerk
Shanks · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Whoops!
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
261 picks · 441 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 375 bans
Centaur Warrunner
227 picks · 300 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
213 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 199 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 361 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Whoops!
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:45
Execration 85%Whoops! 15%
The model gave 85% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 85%
Series resultExecration 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1