?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YACHE123loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 28 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 18 games
44%
Axe
Axe
Tino- · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
53%

YACHE123

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
542 picks · 759 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 343 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 638 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 545 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
373 picks · 657 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 559 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 465 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 151 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
Execration 78%YACHE123 22%
The model gave 78% on Execration — the game was taken by YACHE123 in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
46% · 98 games53% · 80 games
Earth SpiritSancity
Earth Spirit
Tiny
TinyBob
44% · 106 games54% · 310 games
Shadow Demonace12
Shadow Demon
Mars
MarsTino-
43% · 71 game
Batrider
BatriderShanks
50% · 85 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magecml
47% · 30 games
Game 2prediction correct22:9
Execration 79%YACHE123 21%
The model gave 79% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalos
55% · 111 games53% · 147 games
Void SpiritSancity
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyBob
54% · 171 game48% · 402 games
Tuskace12
Tusk
Axe
AxeTino-
51% · 133 games
Phoenix
PhoenixShanks
46% · 78 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magecml
42% · 56 games
Game 3prediction correct27:21
Execration 80%YACHE123 20%
The model gave 80% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPalos
53% · 188 games55% · 202 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaTino-
43% · 110 games49% · 307 games
Tinyace12
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBob
52% · 45 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShanks
49% · 150 games
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
41% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 93%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3