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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 6 games
83%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 6 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 5 games
60%

Yangon Galacticos

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 723 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
270 picks · 250 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 669 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
252 picks · 267 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 666 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 562 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Execration 61%Yangon Galacticos 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
30% · 47 games56% · 171 game
Templar AssassinKsh
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaBob
36% · 53 games57% · 135 games
InvokerYoung PH
Invoker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTino-
55% · 58 games
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
42% · 54 games
Pugna
Pugnacml
53% · 94 games
Game 2prediction missed25:42
Execration 64%Yangon Galacticos 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 1:03:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPalos
49% · 75 games53% · 104 games
UrsaKsh
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBob
49% · 64 games45% · 273 games
PangolierYoung PH
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireShanks
39% · 55 games
Chen
Chencml
59% · 63 games
Magnus
MagnusTino-
60% · 120 games
Game 3prediction correct45:30
Execration 62%Yangon Galacticos 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
62% · 81 game47% · 102 games
SvenKsh
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaTino-
54% · 38 games49% · 155 games
Nature's ProphetYoung PH
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracBob
42% · 52 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
48% · 31 game
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
52% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 73%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3