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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Young Bloodloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 8 games
88%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
33%

Young Blood

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LOyd · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Red · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 397 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
468 picks · 581 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 556 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 534 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 773 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 463 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
400 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Young Blood
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:39
Execration 83%Young Blood 17%
The model gave 83% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:47.
Game 2prediction correct30:25
Execration 83%Young Blood 17%
The model gave 83% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 83%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2