?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1001 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 576 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 526 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
341 picks · 354 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
332 picks · 180 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 701 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 223 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 280 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
EXTREMUM 39%AS Monaco Gambit 61%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 35:36.
Game 2prediction correct22:29
EXTREMUM 39%AS Monaco Gambit 61%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 33:28.
Game 3prediction correct17:29
EXTREMUM 39%AS Monaco Gambit 61%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 31:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 61%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3