?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 18 games
39%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 15 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 13 games
15%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
438 picks · 193 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 572 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 875 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 321 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 389 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:17
EXTREMUM 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 47:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNefrit
46% · 109 games51% · 51 game
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Razor
Razormellojul
57% · 40 games45% · 240 games
MarsAinkrad
Mars
Timbersaw
TimbersawBlizzy
54% · 92 games46% · 57 games
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressG
51% · 99 games55% · 91 game
Dark WillowHeaven
Dark Willow
Lion
LionChuvash
50% · 152 games49% · 53 games
Crystal MaidenLodine
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct30:25
EXTREMUM 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNefrit
53% · 34 games60% · 52 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
52% · 101 game45% · 81 game
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherBlizzy
46% · 37 games61% · 25 games
RazorTheChosenOne
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixG
44% · 146 games53% · 110 games
LionHeaven
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkChuvash
44% · 45 games49% · 95 games
Ancient ApparitionLodine
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct9:20
EXTREMUM 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNefrit
44% · 18 games48% · 82 games
AxeKiritych
Axe
Death Prophet
Death Prophetmellojul
48% · 103 games53% · 26 games
BroodmotherTheChosenOne
Broodmother
Enchantress
EnchantressG
52% · 76 games53% · 43 games
WindrangerAinkrad
Windranger
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBlizzy
50% · 62 games50% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightLodine
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionChuvash
45% · 137 games56% · 176 games
Nyx AssassinHeaven
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3