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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoUndyingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 9 games
89%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 7 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
80%

NoUndying

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
velheor · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
velheor · 3 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
velheor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
204 picks · 446 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
181 picks · 337 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
176 picks · 248 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
140 picks · 233 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
132 picks · 445 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
125 picks · 75 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:15
EXTREMUM 49%NoUndying 51%
The model gave 51% on NoUndying — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNefrit
49% · 41 game56% · 84 games
Void SpiritKodos
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batridermellojul
43% · 27 games61% · 16 games
ViperLastHero-
Viper
Puck
PuckShachlo
44% · 72 games62% · 34 games
Earthshakervelheor
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowChuvash
little data48% · 28 games
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenG
34% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct10:28
EXTREMUM 48%NoUndying 52%
The model gave 52% on NoUndying — the game was taken by NoUndying in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batridermellojul
40% · 26 games57% · 51 game
Void SpiritKodos
Void Spirit
Wraith King
Wraith KingNefrit
61% · 34 gameslittle data
OmniknightLastHero-
Omniknight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerShachlo
30% · 23 games49% · 41 game
Rubickvelheor
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
49% · 25 games61% · 46 games
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenG
36% · 30 games
Game 3prediction missed43:24
EXTREMUM 49%NoUndying 51%
The model gave 51% on NoUndying — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 51:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNefrit
49% · 16 games62% · 58 games
Void SpiritKodos
Void Spirit
Batrider
Batridermellojul
40% · 31 game49% · 10 games
SlardarLastHero-
Slardar
Mars
MarsShachlo
44% · 58 games44% · 29 games
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionChuvash
little data63% · 34 games
Death ProphetBLACKARXANGEL
Death Prophet
Oracle
OracleG
41% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 50%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3