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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RUSSIANDRILLwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%

RUSSIANDRILL

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 708 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
326 picks · 411 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
272 picks · 482 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
253 picks · 213 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
232 picks · 342 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 126 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 646 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 445 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
EXTREMUM 68%RUSSIANDRILL 32%
The model gave 68% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 33:55.
Game 2prediction missed21:30
EXTREMUM 68%RUSSIANDRILL 32%
The model gave 68% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by RUSSIANDRILL in 40:18.
Game 3prediction missed30:30
EXTREMUM 68%RUSSIANDRILL 32%
The model gave 68% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by RUSSIANDRILL in 44:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 68%
Series resultRUSSIANDRILL 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3