EXTREMUM vs Team Empire — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

EXTREMUMloss 1:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Team Empirewin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Monkey King

15 picks · 18 bans

53%

Puck

15 picks · 32 bans

58%

Void Spirit

15 picks · 23 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

12 picks · 9 bans

56%

Mars

12 picks · 40 bans

56%

Tiny

11 picks · 8 bans

47%

Crystal Maiden

10 picks · 0 bans

50%

Mirana

10 picks · 15 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% EXTREMUM

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% EXTREMUM

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:32

EXTREMUM 48%Team Empire 52%

The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 54:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo