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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 9 games
89%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
88%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 8 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 989 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
352 picks · 525 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 570 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
339 picks · 338 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
334 picks · 700 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
318 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 229 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 76%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:30
EXTREMUM 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNefrit
58% · 69 games45% · 62 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeChuvash
44% · 105 games51% · 108 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
47% · 116 games55% · 35 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
43% · 45 games61% · 134 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressG
49% · 71 game49% · 67 games
Witch DoctorMiposhka
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct13:38
EXTREMUM 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusmellojul
59% · 22 gameslittle data
Naga SirenYatoro
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherShachlo
44% · 10 games42% · 75 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNefrit
53% · 11 games39% · 71 game
MarsCollapse
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressChuvash
59% · 82 games58% · 35 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Snapfire
SnapfireG
57% · 69 games38% · 13 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2