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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 968 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
421 picks · 585 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 680 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 597 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
315 picks · 285 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 179 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
269 picks · 385 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 235 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:22
EXTREMUM 42%Winstrike Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNefrit
39% · 53 games62% · 77 games
Juggernautdyrachyo
Juggernaut
Puck
Puckmellojul
49% · 149 games56% · 164 games
Marsre1bl
Mars
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderShachlo
61% · 24 games55% · 29 games
Venomancerchshrct
Venomancer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeG
33% · 96 games50% · 4 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskChuvash
47% · 108 games53% · 156 games
Earth Spirityamich
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed37:32
EXTREMUM 47%Winstrike Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 58:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNefrit
44% · 16 games49% · 128 games
Marsre1bl
Mars
Death Prophet
Death Prophetmellojul
58% · 147 games35% · 79 games
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorShachlo
68% · 38 games64% · 14 games
Slardarchshrct
Slardar
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeG
44% · 122 games42% · 70 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
58% · 49 games50% · 81 game
OraclePanto
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct18:28
EXTREMUM 44%Winstrike Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
44% · 31 game57% · 100 games
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Wraith King
Puck
Puckmellojul
50% · 195 games50% · 197 games
Void Spiritre1bl
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierShachlo
51% · 107 games50% · 30 games
Viperchshrct
Viper
Lion
LionChuvash
50% · 77 games43% · 3 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingG
52% · 33 games45% · 113 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 62%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3