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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Rvze · 12 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lefitan · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 7 games
29%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
631 picks · 494 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
470 picks · 687 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
409 picks · 575 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 852 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 408 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 481 bans
51%
Zeus
Zeus
277 picks · 368 bans
43%
Enchantress
Enchantress
268 picks · 322 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% HF
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:19
EZ KATKA 64%HF 36%
The model gave 64% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by HF in 45:51.
Game 2prediction correct38:19
EZ KATKA 64%HF 36%
The model gave 64% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 39:29.
Game 3prediction correct18:41
EZ KATKA 64%HF 36%
The model gave 64% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 64%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3