Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Falling Faintloss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
defwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Falling Faint
No games played over 6 months.
def
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
732 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 450 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 569 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 250 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 726 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Falling Faint
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Falling Faint
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Falling Faint 60%def 40%
The model gave 60% on Falling Faint — the game was taken by def.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalling Faint · 60%
Series resultdef 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1