Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
Brame
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 11 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
346 picks · 509 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 173 bans
Bane
298 picks · 236 bans
Weaver
288 picks · 640 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
257 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
222 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Fantastic Five 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 27:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaArk
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Outworld DestroyerW1sh-
63% · 51 game
Wraith KingNefrit
54% · 51 game
IoSsaSpartan
50% · 24 games
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction correct9:37
Fantastic Five 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMalr1ne
Templar AssassinW1sh-
RazorArk
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
55% · 34 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
69% · 9 games
Outworld DestroyerCTOMAHEH1
55% · 56 games
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 65%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2