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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 12 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
55%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 5 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 5 games
20%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
79%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 23 games
65%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
452 picks · 176 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 191 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 538 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
317 picks · 795 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 478 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 620 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
289 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 363 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:27
Fantastic Five 39%Hellbear Smashers 61%
The model gave 61% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
43% · 156 games55% · 49 games
LunaAce
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
58% · 25 games59% · 68 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light633
50% · 55 games55% · 49 games
Dragon KnightGeneRaL
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMuka
47% · 68 games53% · 76 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
39% · 62 games
AbaddontOfu
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct17:20
Fantastic Five 41%Hellbear Smashers 59%
The model gave 59% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
44% · 151 game58% · 59 games
LunaAce
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
61% · 37 games63% · 70 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern633
45% · 74 games49% · 34 games
UnderlordGeneRaL
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMuka
48% · 61 game30% · 9 games
PugnaGilgir
Pugna
44% · 151 game
MarstOfu
Mars
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 66%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2