Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
Clockwerk
633 · 7 games
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 18 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 12 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
335 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
287 picks · 164 bans
Bane
272 picks · 220 bans
Weaver
270 picks · 598 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 713 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
213 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 68%
Hero pool strength65% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:36
Fantastic Five 32%Hydra 68%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMalr1ne
Phantom LancerKami
TerrorbladeArk
Storm SpiritAskold
60% · 60 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
49% · 79 games
Monkey KingMuka
57% · 54 games
DisruptorZayac
Game 2prediction correct11:25
Fantastic Five 34%Hydra 66%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaArk
Phantom AssassinKami
LinaMalr1ne
Queen of PainAskold
58% · 63 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
51% · 75 games
MiranaMuka
60% · 58 games
BaneZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 74%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2