ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PBProject Bloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Project B
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 981 bans
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 63%
Series resultFantastic Five 1:0
Series predictioncorrect