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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 7 games
57%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
33%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 194 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 602 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
310 picks · 494 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
308 picks · 676 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 228 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
283 picks · 162 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Fantastic Five 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
40% · 146 games57% · 27 games
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
Templar Assassin
Slardar
SlardarSuperNova
53% · 40 games52% · 49 games
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaMuka
50% · 58 games53% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
Centaur Warrunner
Lich
Lich633
little data50% · 63 games
Lionsayuw
Lion
58% · 53 games
EnchantressVANSKOR
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct14:47
Fantastic Five 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAskold
51% · 48 games50% · 34 games
LycanSmiling Knight
Lycan
Viper
ViperSuperNova
43% · 35 games47% · 31 game
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition633
57% · 56 games54% · 47 games
AxePetushara
Axe
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMuka
48% · 84 games51% · 47 games
Leshracsayuw
Leshrac
47% · 64 games
OracleVANSKOR
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 53%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2