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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 17 games
76%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 · 10 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
22%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 9 games
56%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 21 game
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 12 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
427 picks · 194 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 137 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 625 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
304 picks · 670 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
284 picks · 455 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 362 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
283 picks · 507 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
263 picks · 228 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 81%
Hero pool strength60% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Fantastic Five 33%Team Empire 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
48% · 133 games55% · 159 games
Linakiyotaka
Lina
Puck
PuckAskold
48% · 310 games52% · 130 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordBlizzy
51% · 41 game50% · 301 game
MarsShachlo
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkjAMES
43% · 169 games54% · 114 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin633
54% · 228 games46% · 177 games
ClockwerkVANSKOR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct4:32
Fantastic Five 34%Team Empire 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 24:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKami
52% · 92 games62% · 98 games
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
Templar Assassin
Pugna
PugnaAskold
49% · 21 game51% · 22 games
Chaos KnightSmiling Knight
Chaos Knight
Mars
MarsBlizzy
48% · 176 games49% · 94 games
BeastmasterShachlo
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
52% · 72 games48% · 77 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
Clockwerk633
43% · 85 games46% · 155 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 75%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2