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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
30%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
13%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ark · 8 games
63%

X3

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 532 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
327 picks · 249 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
320 picks · 195 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 685 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 754 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
246 picks · 395 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Fantastic Five 51%X3 49%
The model gave 51% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by X3 in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorArk
52% · 77 games40% · 43 games
LunaDarkLord^
Luna
Pugna
PugnaMalr1ne
39% · 7 games46% · 76 games
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSuperNova
59% · 78 gameslittle data
TechiesAntares
Techies
51% · 43 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed26:21
Fantastic Five 48%X3 52%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArk
54% · 77 games43% · 104 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
53% · 132 games54% · 104 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsSuperNova
44% · 183 games48% · 55 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
54% · 129 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Game 3prediction missed51:30
Fantastic Five 49%X3 51%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMalr1ne
52% · 93 games55% · 37 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Razor
RazorArk
44% · 60 games46% · 108 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaSuperNova
52% · 79 games35% · 21 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
58% · 66 games
Winter WyvernKidaro
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 51%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3