Fantasy Gaming vs Infamous — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Fantasy Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Infamousloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantasy Gaming

Ogre Magi

JimmyCoff666 · 4 games

Ember Spiritoften banned

S1RENM · 2 games

Enigmaoften banned

ArzenT · 2 games

Gyrocopteroften banned

DM · 2 games

Linaoften banned

S1RENM · 1 game

Lunaoften banned

DM · 1 game

Medusaoften banned

DM · 1 game

Naga Sirenoften banned

JimmyCoff666 · 1 game

Infamous

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Clockwerk

386 picks · 491 bans

54%

Muerta

375 picks · 294 bans

51%

Tusk

357 picks · 383 bans

47%

Pangolier

337 picks · 546 bans

46%

Batrider

322 picks · 380 bans

52%

Beastmaster

314 picks · 721 bans

52%

Lion

312 picks · 152 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

290 picks · 398 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%

Hero pool strength59% Infamous

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Infamous

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:13

Fantasy Gaming 47%Infamous 53%

The model gave 53% on Infamous — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 35:22.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo