Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CACDUB Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Rubick
Newsham · 11 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 10 games
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Jenkins · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
Sonic · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
CDUB Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 610 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 478 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1024 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 977 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 375 bans
Doom
397 picks · 657 bans
Undying
393 picks · 607 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
Fart Studios 52%CDUB Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 27:36.
Game 2prediction correct48:21
Fart Studios 52%CDUB Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 35:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 52%
Series resultFart Studios 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2