ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fart Studiosloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
No Bounty Hunterwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
Spectreoften banned
Skyward · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
Tiny
Sonic · 4 games
Zeus
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Luna
kAAN · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 608 bans
Lion
221 picks · 193 bans
Vengeful Spirit
218 picks · 96 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:43
Fart Studios 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 34:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 53%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1