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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TiltedBoysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fart Studios

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
BSJ · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sonic · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Sonic · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 1 game
100%

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
369 picks · 347 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 310 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
269 picks · 506 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 569 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
249 picks · 464 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
238 picks · 601 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
220 picks · 126 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 348 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
Fart Studios 53%TiltedBoys 47%
The model gave 53% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaBSJ
39% · 40 games52% · 321 game
MarsEzekiel
Mars
Lina
LinaiAnnihilate
56% · 48 games
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJenkins
55% · 60 games
Tiny
TinyNewsham
48% · 152 games
Silencer
SilencerSonic
44% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Fart Studios 54%TiltedBoys 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaBSJ
64% · 10 games47% · 179 games
BatriderEzekiel
Batrider
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
52% · 46 games
Tiny
TinyJenkins
56% · 78 games
Rubick
RubickNewsham
53% · 26 games
Disruptor
DisruptorSonic
43% · 19 games
Game 3prediction correct36:13
Fart Studios 56%TiltedBoys 44%
The model gave 56% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidBSJ
71% · 3 games43% · 55 games
UnderlordEzekiel
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
50% · 26 games
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJenkins
62% · 17 games
Tusk
TuskNewsham
54% · 9 games
Pudge
PudgeSonic
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 56%
Series resultFart Studios 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3