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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 5 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Bane
Banesignature
Overlom · 9 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
75%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Overlom · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 273 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
392 picks · 499 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
353 picks · 502 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 488 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 471 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
249 picks · 332 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
247 picks · 459 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
241 picks · 335 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Felt 42%5RATFORCESTAFF 58%
The model gave 58% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesolji
53% · 195 games50% · 132 games
Phantom Assassindnm
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYellow Flash
46% · 264 games46% · 222 games
Storm Spiritred2
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsZore
51% · 443 games53% · 237 games
Death ProphetLil_Nick
Death Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAfrOmoush
49% · 306 games52% · 300 games
PangolierGiant
Pangolier
49% · 317 games
Banealbinozebra
Bane
Game 2prediction correct18:42
Felt 42%5RATFORCESTAFF 58%
The model gave 58% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYellow Flash
54% · 172 games45% · 65 games
Phantom Assassindnm
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
Invokersolji
55% · 185 games46% · 122 games
Storm Spiritred2
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAfrOmoush
53% · 65 games44% · 68 games
ViperLil_Nick
Viper
Sand King
Sand KingZore
52% · 102 games49% · 158 games
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Grimstroke
47% · 111 games
IoGiant
Io
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 64%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2