Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axe
Zore · 4 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
solji · 1 game
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
295 picks · 596 bans
Void Spirit
267 picks · 343 bans
Mars
234 picks · 419 bans
Earth Spirit
220 picks · 175 bans
Keeper of the Light
191 picks · 360 bans
Nyx Assassin
190 picks · 588 bans
Rubick
190 picks · 102 bans
Wraith King
184 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:29
Felt 45%Arkosh Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 42:22.
Game 2prediction correct16:38
Felt 45%Arkosh Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 28:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 55%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2