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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 10 games
40%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 9 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
solji · 8 games
50%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
8%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
29%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 606 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 508 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
485 picks · 1201 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
484 picks · 919 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
431 picks · 1086 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
416 picks · 871 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
407 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
401 picks · 578 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 30%
Hero pool strength63% Felt
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Felt 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBerna
46% · 125 games45% · 75 games
WindrangerStoneBank
Windranger
Mirana
Miranasolji
57% · 252 games54% · 43 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
45% · 68 games53% · 211 games
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Lich
Lichalbinozebra
48% · 113 games52% · 206 games
EnchantressCTOMAHEH1
Enchantress
51% · 23 games
Vengeful SpiritLodine
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed11:30
Felt 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Felt — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
54% · 100 games49% · 45 games
LifestealerStoneBank
Lifestealer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFayde
45% · 56 games43% · 80 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Techies
Techiessolji
54% · 193 games52% · 151 game
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magealbinozebra
51% · 153 games44% · 95 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
51% · 131 game
BatriderLodine
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct26:35
Felt 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 53:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerBerna
36% · 68 games51% · 59 games
SvenStoneBank
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFayde
45% · 44 games58% · 68 games
UnderlordFunn1k
Underlord
Techies
Techiessolji
56% · 146 games57% · 120 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
Disruptoralbinozebra
48% · 194 games50% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
50% · 98 games
LichLodine
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 69%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3