Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Byzantine Raidersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Axe
Zore · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 1 game
Razoroften banned
solji · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
145 picks · 266 bans
Puck
144 picks · 336 bans
Earth Spirit
132 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
124 picks · 184 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 126 bans
Keeper of the Light
97 picks · 178 bans
Nyx Assassin
95 picks · 338 bans
Rubick
94 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 68%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictioncorrect