Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Electronic Boysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Luna
Kom4rt · 2 games
Electronic Boys
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 3 games
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Giant · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Giant · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Giant · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 1011 bans
Mars
369 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
Lion
339 picks · 179 bans
Void Spirit
337 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Electronic Boys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Electronic Boys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
Felt 48%Electronic Boys 52%
The model gave 52% on Electronic Boys — the game was taken by Felt in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainYellow Flash
BroodmotherGiant
Faceless Voidsolji
TimbersawSpeeed
Centaur WarrunnerZore
Invokerred2
41% · 51 game
Lionalbinozebra
Game 2prediction missed29:9
Felt 49%Electronic Boys 51%
The model gave 51% on Electronic Boys — the game was taken by Felt in 19:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherYellow Flash
ViperGiant
Phantom Assassinsolji
JuggernautSpeeed
Centaur WarrunnerZore
Dragon Knightred2
43% · 34 games
Snapfirealbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteElectronic Boys · 55%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2