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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
25%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 4 games
0%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 3 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
BSJ · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
466 picks · 311 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
463 picks · 455 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 403 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
331 picks · 328 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
320 picks · 368 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
281 picks · 146 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
259 picks · 640 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 607 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 69%
Hero pool strength62% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:23
Felt 35%Fart Studios 65%
The model gave 65% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Felt in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
56% · 131 game43% · 241 game
DoomBSJ
Doom
Pangolier
Pangoliersolji
60% · 264 games42% · 175 games
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFayde
50% · 296 games50% · 150 games
BroodmotherJenkins
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyChen
51% · 548 games46% · 470 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorShoe
54% · 145 games48% · 348 games
ClockwerkSonic
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct44:39
Felt 34%Fart Studios 66%
The model gave 66% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 49:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
45% · 78 games48% · 125 games
Faceless VoidBSJ
Faceless Void
Axe
AxeFayde
52% · 11 games45% · 23 games
Outworld DestroyeriAnnihilate
Outworld Destroyer
Pangolier
Pangoliersolji
58% · 190 games43% · 33 games
MagnusJenkins
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShoe
57% · 63 games48% · 219 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkChen
51% · 159 games48% · 101 game
DisruptorSonic
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed26:20
Felt 36%Fart Studios 64%
The model gave 64% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Felt in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
60% · 197 games51% · 33 games
Phantom LancerBSJ
Phantom Lancer
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsolji
54% · 271 game46% · 103 games
TimbersawJenkins
Timbersaw
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFayde
43% · 45 games49% · 369 games
TinyiAnnihilate
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorShoe
56% · 237 games45% · 271 game
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorChen
47% · 138 games46% · 112 games
Keeper of the LightSonic
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 76%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3