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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 7 games
71%

nouns

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lelis · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
866 picks · 605 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
619 picks · 429 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 431 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
518 picks · 831 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
463 picks · 324 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
460 picks · 962 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 302 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:22
Felt 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Felt in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBerna
57% · 123 games55% · 40 games
Night StalkerYamSun
Night Stalker
Lycan
LycanFayde
45% · 119 games47% · 159 games
EnigmaMoo
Enigma
Mirana
Miranasolji
55% · 308 games45% · 248 games
Ember SpiritGunnar
Ember Spirit
Undying
Undyingalbinozebra
44% · 292 games57% · 194 games
DisruptorLelis
Disruptor
47% · 201 game
EnchantressHusky
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct4:29
Felt 30%nouns 70%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBerna
40% · 165 games59% · 97 games
Templar AssassinYamSun
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
47% · 116 games52% · 145 games
BeastmasterMoo
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesolji
49% · 180 games50% · 200 games
TuskGunnar
Tusk
Undying
Undyingalbinozebra
52% · 389 games48% · 266 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
57% · 142 games
MiranaHusky
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed35:17
Felt 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by Felt in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
41% · 168 games51% · 130 games
Nature's ProphetMoo
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterFayde
56% · 97 games48% · 76 games
RazorYamSun
Razor
Jakiro
Jakiroalbinozebra
39% · 75 games52% · 55 games
RikiGunnar
Riki
Mirana
Miranasolji
56% · 290 games53% · 357 games
TinyLelis
Tiny
43% · 12 games
OmniknightHusky
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 82%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3