Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PSPecado Squad Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
436 picks · 978 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 565 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
Mars
346 picks · 584 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 208 bans
Lion
256 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Pecado Squad Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:26
Felt 44%Pecado Squad Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Felt in 45:33.
Game 2prediction correct37:11
Felt 44%Pecado Squad Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Pecado Squad Gaming in 35:12.
Game 3prediction correct34:7
Felt 44%Pecado Squad Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Pecado Squad Gaming — the game was taken by Pecado Squad Gaming in 34:11.
Model check result
Model favoritePecado Squad Gaming · 56%
Series resultFelt 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3