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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Feltwin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team DogChamploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 10 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
solji · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubick
solji · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Chen · 7 games
71%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 19 games
74%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 12 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
895 picks · 618 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
636 picks · 443 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 855 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 433 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 544 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
478 picks · 329 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
467 picks · 1004 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 315 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total57% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:20
Felt 48%Team DogChamp 52%
The model gave 52% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Felt in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerBerna
58% · 127 games46% · 510 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
51% · 391 game43% · 179 games
Primal BeastSunlight
Primal Beast
Mirana
Miranasolji
54% · 461 game47% · 461 game
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
50% · 391 game51% · 220 games
EnchantressBloody Nine
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 57%
Series resultFelt 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1