ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionFferziloss 0:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
sickwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ferzi
No games played over 6 months.
sick
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
175 picks · 157 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Dark Willow
165 picks · 69 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 235 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 186 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ferzi
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% sick
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:55
ferzi 46%sick 54%
The model gave 54% on sick — the game was taken by sick in 43:25.
Model check result
Model favoritesick · 54%
Series resultsick 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1